Is the US population shrinking? (2023)

Is the population in the U.S. decreasing?

While 2021 saw a record-low increase in population rate, it was not a significant outlier in terms of the last decade. Thirty-seven states grew more slowly in the 2010s than in the previous decade and three states saw population decreases, according to the 2020 census.

The decline in U.S. population growth is likely due to a confluence of factors: lower levels of immigration, population aging, and declining fertility rates. A drop in net immigration to the United States is a key factor in the country's declining population growth rate.

Much of the blame for population growth's sudden decline was heaped on cities. In 2022, by contrast, the U.S. Census Bureau is estimating a population increase of 0.4 percent, an increase of 1,256,003 to bring the nation's total population to 333,287,557.

West Virginia is among the 18 states who saw population decline between 2021 and 2022. Numerically, New York saw the highest decline with a loss of more than 180,000 residents followed by California who lost more than 113,000 residents.

Assessment. According to American public intellectual Noam Chomsky, America's decline started shortly after the end of World War II, with the "loss of China" followed by the Indochina Wars. By 1970, the United States' share of world wealth had declined to about 25%, which was still large but sharply reduced.

The resident population grew by 0.4% in 2022, the Census Bureau said on Thursday, a rebound from last year when population growth almost flatlined at 0.1%. There are now 333.3 million people living in the U.S., after adding nearly 1.3 million people in the past year.

Different Cities Experiencing Decline

San Francisco was not among the 15 fastest-declining cities in 2019 but topped the list in 2021 with a 6.3% drop in population from the previous year.

At a current 327 million people in U.S. (US Census Bureau, 2018), overpopulation is at the core of many U.S. environmental issues. Understanding this challenge is a necessity for today's millennials and the aging population alike.

This is far below the UN's more widely agreed upon estimate of 10.4 billion, but it's still about 800 million more people than are on the planet today. Most projections agree that the world's population is going to peak at some point in the second half of the 21st century and then plateau or gradually drop.

China's population is now declining. Last week, officials announced that 2022 marked the first drop in total population in six decades, since the famine of the Great Leap Forward. This long-expected event is the result of decades-long declines in Chinese fertility rates.

What year will the population stop growing?

An analysis from the Wittgenstein Center IIASA predicts global population to peak in 2070 at 9.4 billion and then decline to 9.0 billion in 2100.

The global growth rate in absolute numbers accelerated to a peak of 92.8 million in 1990, but declined to 80.0 million in 2019. Long-term projections indicate that the growth rate of the human population of this planet will continue to decline and that before the end of the 21st century, it will reach zero.

Florida's population increased by 1.9% to 22,244,823 between 2021 and 2022, surpassing Idaho, the previous year's fastest-growing state. Florida's percentage gains since 1946 have been impressive: its 2022 population is just over 9 times its 1946 population of 2,440,000.

The U.S. economy is extremely unlikely to have a “lost decade.” There are several, very important differences between conditions and policies in Japan in the 1990s and the U.S. today and over the next few years. The bubble in U.S. house prices was smaller than Japan's.

The term “Lost Decade for Stocks” refers to the ten-year period from 12/31/1999 through 12/31/2009, when the S&P 500^® generated an annualized total return of -0.9% over the period. This was only the second time that the market actually had a negative total return over a decade period.

The United States is seen as a declining superpower as indicated by factors such as poor economic recovery, financial disorder, high deficits gaining close to GDP levels and unemployment, increasing political polarization, and overregulation forcing jobs overseas in China.

Bank economists expect U.S. economic growth to slow. U.S. will "narrowly avoid" a recession. There is a 35 percent chance of a U.S. downturn in 2023, bank economists say. Mild recession likely beginning in the first half of the year.

China is forecast to lose almost half of its people by 2100, plunging from more than 1.4 billion to 771 million inhabitants. Russia, Germany, South Korea and Spain are all set to join this downward movement, with their populations beginning to decline by 2030.

Is the US economy getting stronger or weaker?

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

For the entire year, GDP was up 2.1% from 2021, about half of the growth seen in the year prior.

Today, according to the US Census, Monowi is the only incorporated place in the US with just one resident, and Eiler is the mayor, clerk, treasurer, librarian, bartender and only person left in the US' tiniest town.

Many of these experts believe that optimum U.S. population size is far below present numbers. Biological Laboratory places optimal U.S. popu- lation between 85 and 170 million, depending on the level of per capita consumption.

The world's population is projected to peak at 10.4 billion by 2080.

Earth's capacity

Many scientists think Earth has a maximum carrying capacity of 9 billion to 10 billion people. [ How Do You Count 7 Billion People?] One such scientist, the eminent Harvard University sociobiologist Edward O. Wilson, bases his estimate on calculations of the Earth's available resources.

All around the world, birthrates are declining rapidly. Global population growth has been slowing since the 1960s, and global population will almost certainly start to decline. The world is absolutely not, as is sometimes claimed, on track to have 14 billion people by 2100.

What is the maximum population the Earth can sustain?

It may be a slow process – if we reach 10.4 billion, the UN expects the population to remain at this level for – but eventually after this the population is projected to decline.

A historic demographic low point

The new census estimates make plain that as a result of more deaths, fewer births, and a recent low in immigration, America has achieved something close to zero growth in the 2020-21 period.

There are currently 8 billion humans on Earth, and in 40 to 60 years there will be 10 billion. For many scientists this is too many, given the climate crisis. The question of human overpopulation has been raised since the 19^th century.

“The last time that global population declined was in the mid 14th century, due to the Black Plague,” he told IFLScience. “If our forecast is correct, it will be the first time population decline is driven by fertility decline, as opposed to events such as a pandemic or famine.”

Researchers expect the US to face underpopulation, blaming a falling birth rate and economic crises. Every 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate reduces births by 1 percent, according to Wellesley College economics professor Phil Levine.

Moreover, he suggests that human numbers have already passed the long-term capacity of the Earth to sustain us and that an optimum world population lies perhaps in the range of 2 to 3 billion.

Five billion years is how long the planet has left.

If nothing changes, the U.S. Census Bureau projects the country's population will reach 404.5 million by 2060 — a 23 percent increase in just four decades. However, under a zero net migration policy, the population would stabilize at 329 million in 2060.